Too little, too late: #COP29 fails, outcome is at best avoidance of diplomatic disaster

COP29 in Baku: Key outcomes and insights from climate experts

The Baku Agreement fails on several accounts. The results are at best the avoidance of a diplomatic disaster. Statements on the outcome of #COP29 by PIK directors Johan Rockström and Ottmar Edenhofer. 👇

Over the past two weeks, nearly 40,000 participants from across the globe gathered in Baku, Azerbaijan, for COP29, the UN Climate Summit. The conference focused on advancing the goals of the Paris Agreement, setting a new collective financing target for developing countries, and establishing trusted, transparent global carbon markets to foster collaboration.

Two leading climate scientists, Ottmar Edenhofer and Johan Rockström from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), shared their thoughts on the outcomes of COP29:

Ottmar Edenhofer

• Highlighted the critical need for stronger commitments on carbon pricing and market mechanisms to drive transformative change.
• Stressed that the global community must now turn pledges into measurable action, especially in reducing emissions in the energy, transport, and industrial sectors.

“The climate summit in Baku was not a success, but at best the avoidance of a diplomatic disaster. It is now abundantly clear that we need additional negotiation formats for the global fight against the climate crisis. Not all of the almost 200 signatory states to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change necessarily have to sit around the same table for progress to be made. It is now important to link climate financing for the Global South, which was the main topic of discussion in Baku, to emissions reduction in two ways. First, donor states in the wealthy North should mobilise the funds by pricing oil, coal and gas. Second, the money should ideally only flow if the recipient country demonstrably reduces their greenhouse gas emissions. Perhaps such a system can be established at future climate summits, but it is more likely to happen through smaller groups, in so-called climate clubs.”

Ottmar Edenhofer, climate economist:

Johan Rockström

• Emphasized the importance of sticking to the 1.5°C global warming limit, noting that the window to act is rapidly closing.
• Called for immediate and large-scale investments in renewable energy and nature-based solutions to ensure climate resilience, particularly in vulnerable regions.

“The Baku agreement of raising 300 billion dollars of public money annually from multiple sources by 2035 fails on several accounts. Too little, too late, from too many sources. Global emissions must be reduced by 7.5 percent per year to avoid unmanageable global outcomes as the world breaches the 1.5°C limit. Starting by taking off 3 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2025. We cannot wait for public climate finance another ten years, by which time loss-and-damage costs will have gone through the roof. Our only chance is full focus on financing and implementing emission cuts now. Furthermore, to solve the climate crisis we need to redirect the entire global economy away from fossil-fuel based growth. Private funding is necessary, but well beyond the critical public climate finance through collective action among nations in the world.”

Johan Rockström, Earth system scientist:

Key Agreements at COP29

1. New Climate Finance Goals:
   • A collective target of at least $1.3 trillion annually by 2025 to help developing countries adapt to climate impacts and reduce emissions.
2. Strengthened Carbon Markets:
   • Agreements to improve transparency and prevent “greenwashing” in global carbon trading systems.
3. Adaptation and Loss & Damage Funding:
   • Operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund to support nations facing devastating climate impacts.

Challenges ahead

Both Edenhofer and Rockström underscored that while progress was made, the current pace of action is insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement targets. The success of these agreements hinges on their swift implementation and enhanced accountability mechanisms.

The conclusion of COP29 leaves the world with a clear mandate: transition from negotiation to action to secure a sustainable and equitable future.

At best the avoidance of a diplomatic disaster

PIK assessment on COP29 closing

Source: PIK – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research