Countdown at COP26 represents a collaborative effort between TED and Future Stewards, aiming to highlight potential remedies for the climate crisis. Over the course of three evenings hosted at the Climate Action Hub, an array of speakers delved into the obstacles and, more importantly, the solutions that are within reach for all of us to pursue. All three sessions underscored the significant level of innovation, determination, and aspiration prevalent in the global community—attributes vital for advancing towards a world with net zero emissions.
Night two focused on nature, youth and technology and featured an NGO using AI to track emissions; an activist who chairs a remarkable non-proliferation initiative; and the chairman of one of the world’s biggest shipping companies, who is revolutionising maritime emissions.
Streamed live on Nov 5, 2021, the second session of Countdown at COP26 features: Gavin McCormick (Co-founder of the Climate Trace coalition, on monitoring and measuring greenhouse gas emissions), Tzeporah Berman (Chair of the Fossil Fuel Non Proliferation Treaty initiative), Jim Hagemann Snabe (Chairman of Maersk, on decarbonizing maritime shipping), Katharine Hayhoe (climate scientist and communicator, author of “Saving Us”), Enric Sala (Marine ecologist, on the 30×30 initiative), Melati Wijsen (Activist, on lessons from ten years of youth activism), Brother Phap Dung and Brother Spirit (Monastics from the Buddhist community of Plum Village) and the Kids of the Republic of Palau.
Gavin McCormick, Co-founder of the Climate Trace coalition, on monitoring and measuring greenhouse gas emissions
It’s incredible that in 2021, we still ask polluters how much they pollute and then add up those numbers. It’s amazing every country in the world has agreed to this process. We need more information and we need it much quicker, it should not take years to report. There are countries that have not had an emissions inventory in the past twenty years. We need to know what is driving emissions and we cannot keep relying on the polluters to report their pollution. If we want to get serious about climate change, we need better tools. We need something with really detailed information that is open and transparent and free.
There are so many free and public satellite images available today and it is possible to get photos every few days of every major power plant in the world. We have teamed up to scan this visual inventory every few days and figure out how much they are polluting. We can switch to thermal infrared and see which ones are hot. We are aiming bigger however, and we want to see if we can track all the human emissions across the entire planet.
We are sharing them all in a giant database called Climate Trace, as we now have properly global systems that are available for everyone. Satellites have come down in cost, while big data and AI costs have come down even more.
All of these experts are sharing everything so everything is cross validated and shared with the public. We are doing this for transparency – the heart of the Paris Agreement is that countries are meant to be able to trust each other but there is a lot of self-monitoring and a lot of countries cannot afford to monitor.
Our next step is making every single emitting asset in the world visible, so not just on a national level, but for every company and factory in the world. I have spoken to asset managers who are collectively investing 43 trillion in net zero but they need to manage and measure are those emissions reductions really happening. The days of hiding emissions are over.
Tzeporah Berman (Chair of the Fossil Fuel Non Proliferation Treaty initiatitve)
According to the latest IPCC report, coal, oil and gas are responsible for 86 per cent of all carbon dioxide emissions in the past decade. Our governments are regulating emissions but not the production of fossil fuels. The majority of emissions that are trapped in our atmosphere today come from three products: oil, gas and coal. Behind our backs, the fossil fuel industry has been growing production and locking in emissions. I wanted to understand what frameworks exist to decide who gets to produce what and how much.
I read the Paris Agreement and the words ‘fossil fuels’, ‘oil’, ‘gas’ and ‘coal’ did not appear once! The fossil fuel industry has been successful in making itself invisible. The fossil fuel industry CEOs know they will have to wind down production, but they are hoping that unproven technology such as carbon capture storage will allow them to increase production. The maths doesn’t add up. We are on track today to produce 120 per cent more fossil fuel emissions than we should burn if we want to stay on track with Paris Agreement.
The markets today are distorted by tax breaks and fossil fuel subsidies as a result of the power and influence of the fossil fuel industry. They no longer deny climate change, but they have moved from denial to delusion that technologies that are not yet proven or cost competitive will fix things in the future. Today we are spending trillions of dollars to increase the production of products we say we are transitioning away from. The world is spending financial and technical capital to dig up stuff we can’t burn and if we do it will burn us.
The Fossil Fuel Non Proliferation Treaty Initiative (FNPTi) will allow the winddown to happen in a fair way. Work is now under way to create a global fossil fuel registry. We can’t rely on the market to dictate the transition as if we do, it will be an unmanaged decline. We need financial management and divestment, and we cannot let governments off the hook. The wealthy countries need to act first, which means no more fracking or oil pipe lines or drilling.
101 Nobel laureates (including the Dalai Lama) have endorsed the principles of a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty; as have 2,500 academics and scientists and multiple cities such as Sydney. Barcelona, Los Angeles and Toronto. What we have learned from studying landmines and nuclear non-proliferation is that the journey matters. A treaty will help us wind down the production of fossil fuels and will help us achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. It is a big, bold idea but at this moment in history we need big, bold ideas.
Jim Hagemann Snabe (Chairman of Maersk, on decarbonizing maritime shipping)
More than 9 per cent of emissions come from transporting goods around the world. So, in 2018 Maersk’s management team made a commitment to make the company carbon neutral by 2050. In order to do that we needed to invent a zero carbon container vessel by 2030 so we could replace our 750 vessels by 2050. We had achieved more than 40 per cent reduction per container vessel in the ten years up to 2018, but we were reaching the limit of what was possible. Sails can reduce fuel consumption, but cannot give the productivity needed. Batteries would take up 60 per cent of the vessel. Liquid Natural Gas is a fossil fuel, and so will not lead to zero carbon shipping.
We set up the Global Centre for Zero Carbon Shipping in Copenhagen, and filled it with specialists in energy, chemicals and engineering. And now, less than three years later, we have found a solution. We can convert green electricity to green hydrogen via electrolysis. The benefit to this is that fuel is produced at a normal temperature and so can be used in a combustion engine. We can retrofit existing engines and so can achieve zero carbon shipping much earlier than we would have done otherwise.
This solution also help with the storage issue with renewables – it can turn the excess energy into a liquid fuel. At the moment however, It is two to three times more expensive than current bunker fuel. We need to scale these solutions to get the cost down. Even at that cost, a pair of trainers sent from Asia to Europe would just cost 5 cents more. I urge governments to show leadership and implement a global price on CO2 now. Then we can focus all of our attention on the real issue which is not the price but the scale.
We have the technology needed to create a sustainable future. We need leadership to get us there faster. On July 1st we ordered first vessel for green fuel. Two months later we ordered eight more. What seemed an impossible dream has become reality seven years ahead of the original plan. It is time for use to pursue big dreams even if they seem impossible.
Watch the second night’s event
