Figure: Shows the global map of carbon bombs with combined potential emissions given for each country as of July 2022
Highlights
- There are 425 fossil fuel projects with >1 Gt CO2 potential emissions globally.
- Carbon bombs’ potential emissions exceed a 1.5 °C carbon budget by a factor of two.
- 40% (169 out of 425) of carbon bombs had not started extraction in 2020.
- Defusing carbon bombs should be a priority for climate change mitigation policy.
For the past 30 years, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations have presented climate change mitigation as a challenge related to reducing demand, rather than addressing fossil fuel extraction directly. This approach has avoided explicitly focusing on the issue of fossil fuel extraction, according to research by Aykut and Castro (2017) and SEI et al. (2019).
In order to meet the Paris Agreement targets and close the gap between climate objectives and energy policy, it is necessary to reduce both fossil fuel supply and demand. However, a roadmap for supply-side mitigation has not yet been developed, making it challenging to determine where mitigation efforts should be focused.
To address this, we have identified the 425 largest fossil fuel extraction projects globally (defined as having a potential CO2 emissions of over 1 gigaton) and refer to them as “carbon bombs”.
We define a carbon bomb as a proposed or existing fossil fuel extraction project (a coal mine, oil or gas project) that would result in more than 1 gigaton of CO2 emissions if its reserves were completely extracted and burnt.
We have listed these projects by name, identified their countries of origin, and calculated their potential emissions. These carbon bombs have the potential to exceed the global 1.5°C carbon budget by a factor of two, and while some are already producing emissions, 40% have not yet begun extraction.
It is crucial that carbon bombs are not overlooked in climate change mitigation efforts. Taking action to defuse these projects could become a key aspect of climate change policy and activism aimed at achieving the Paris Agreement targets.
Currently, only a small number of actors, primarily from civil society, are working on defusing carbon bombs, and they are only focusing on a limited number of them. Therefore, we propose a priority agenda that includes avoiding the activation of new carbon bombs and putting existing ones into “harvest mode.”
The primary sources of emissions are electricity generation, heat production, and transportation, which together account for roughly 73% of emissions.
The primary sources of emissions are electricity generation, heat production, and transportation, which together account for roughly 73% of emissions. Deforestation and land use changes also release carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere.
Agriculture is the largest source of human-caused methane emissions, with livestock being the primary contributor.
Agriculture is the largest source of human-caused methane emissions, with livestock being the primary contributor. Nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural soils are also a significant factor due to fertilizer use. Additionally, fluorinated gases from refrigerants have a notable impact on overall emissions.
The average emissions per person are 6.5 tonnes per year
If current emission rates continue at an average of six and a half tonnes per person per year, temperatures may rise by an average of 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels before 2030. This increase is the limit for the G7 countries and the aspirational limit set by the Paris Agreement.
Source:
““Carbon Bombs” – Mapping key fossil fuel projects”: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421522001756
