Summary
With just seven to nine years left in our carbon budget, the energy transition is time-sensitive. Despite urgency, the “Net Zero 2050” goal often prolongs action. Carbon Tracker works to speed up the transition by identifying and countering delay tactics in their recent research. These delays impede progress toward a safer energy future.
Overview
Carbon Tracker explores the urgency of transitioning to cleaner energy sources and pins it down to the preciousness of time. To clarify, this urgency has been highlighted by two significant analyses.
Our remaining carbon budget to allow a 50% probability of staying within a 1.5C increase from baseline according to the Global Carbon project , is now nine years.
However, Carbon Tracker’s assessment is even more stringent, giving us just seven years for a 66% chance of achieving this goal.
To put this into perspective, seven to nine years represent a mere fraction of the lifespan of traditional energy facilities and vehicles. It’s startling to think that a recently acquired vehicle might deplete our global carbon budget before it’s time for a replacement.
Despite this pressing timeline, there’s a tendency to adopt more lenient perspectives on the timeline for action. The concept of “Net Zero 2050” has evolved from a call to action to an excuse for inaction, functioning like a global-scale procrastination strategy.
When energy transition is delayed, it’s essentially being denied. Failing to promptly embrace transformative actions renders their potential impact ineffective.
This phenomenon is becoming increasingly clear as we dig deeper into the subject. Climate change denial has transformed into climate change delay, a strategy that postpones action when direct confrontation seems challenging.
This is highlighted in frameworks such as the “Discourses of Delay,” which outlines four key strategies to slow down energy transition:
- Promoting Non-Transformative Solutions: Fossil fuels are positioned as part of the solution, allowing for vague targets and corporate evasion through multiple emission scopes.
- Emphasizing Downsides: Fossil fuels are viewed as transitional or crucial for developing nations, often ignoring the affordability of renewables and demanding policy perfection before action.
- Re-Directing Responsibility: Decarbonization burdens are shifted onto consumers or accountability is deflected through claims like “our carbon footprint is small.”
- Surrendering: This approach assumes climate change is inevitable, advocating for adaptation over action.
Carbon Tracker’s central aim is to expedite the transition, acknowledging the risks of inaction and the opportunities for both current and future actions.
Their recent research sheds light on these delay tactics and demonstrates how their analyses counteract obstructive strategies.
It’s important to note that some delays are deliberate, resulting from intentional actions, while others are accidental due to a lack of corporate action.
Regardless of their origins, these delays hinder progress toward a safer and more efficient energy system.
Source: Carbon Tracker, Net Zero 2050 – Old Before Its Time by author Harry Benham
