The latest Global Carbon Budget report, the result of collaborative research involving over 100 scientists from the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia (UEA), CICERO, and Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich, has been unveiled during COP27, shedding light on the concerning trajectory of carbon emissions and carbon sinks.
Released on Friday, November 11, the 2022 report sounds a stark alarm regarding our progress toward the Paris Agreement’s ambitious goal of limiting global average temperature increase to 1.5°C.
According to the Global Carbon Budget, if current emission levels persist, there is a 50% probability of surpassing the 1.5°C threshold within the next nine years. The remaining carbon budget to achieve a 1.5°C future now stands at a mere 380 gigatons of carbon dioxide (GtCO2), while the 2°C budget is estimated to be exhausted in approximately 30 years at current emissions trajectories, with a budget of 1,230 GtCO2.
To illustrate the magnitude of the necessary actions to achieve net-zero emissions, the report emphasizes that an annual reduction of 1.4 GtCO2 is required, mirroring the levels observed globally in 2020 when many parts of the world were under lockdown.
Despite these dire warnings, the report also points out that global emissions for 2022 are projected to exceed 40 GtCO2, just below pre-pandemic levels. The primary driver of this increase is the projected 1% rise in fossil fuel use compared to 2021 levels. Notably, the projection of 40.6 GtCO2 total emissions in 2022 is closely aligned with the 40.9 GtCO2 recorded in 2019, marking the highest annual total ever reported.
Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who led the study, lamented the persistent rise in global fossil CO2 emissions, emphasizing the necessity for swift and substantial action. He emphasized that leaders at COP27 need to take meaningful steps to have any hope of aligning global warming with the 1.5°C target.
The report highlights variations in emissions trends, with a projected 0.9% decline in China and 0.8% in the European Union, but an alarming 1.5% increase in the United States and a substantial 6% increase in India. These variations sum up to an estimated global increase of 1.7% in emissions.
Additionally, the report delves into the roles of oceans and forests as carbon sinks, suggesting that carbon removal through reforestation could potentially counterbalance approximately half of the emissions associated with deforestation. The report forecasts that emissions from land-use changes, including deforestation, will amount to 3.9 GtCO2 in 2022.
Furthermore, the Global Carbon Budget report projects that atmospheric CO2 concentrations will reach an average of 417.2 parts per million in 2022, which is more than 50% higher than pre-industrial levels. Carbon sinks, particularly ocean and land carbon sinks, will continue to absorb approximately half of these emissions. However, the climate crisis has limited the growth capacity of ocean sinks by 4% and land sinks by 17% between 2012 and 2021.
Source: Edie 2022
