Speaker Johan Rockström (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) warns of planet instability as biodiversity declines and climate crisis escalates
Summary
Key facts, charts, statistics and explanations by Johan Rockström. Rockström emphasizes the critical role of nature in stabilizing the planet, warning that unchecked biodiversity loss and climate change could push Earth beyond its safe operating boundaries. Immediate action to protect ecosystems and cut carbon emissions is essential to avoid catastrophic tipping points.
Background
This speech outlines the critical state of our planet due to climate change and biodiversity loss, emphasizing the importance of protecting nature to ensure the survival of humanity. Here are the key points:
- Planetary Stability Threatened: Earth is currently at a 1.2°C rise in global temperature, the warmest it has been in 100,000 years. This path, projected to lead to 2.7°C within the next few generations, is unprecedented in the last 3 million years. It poses a clear disaster risk, with no evidence supporting that humanity can thrive in such a climate.
- Nature’s Role in Resilience: The Earth’s resilience, driven by its natural systems, has been buffering the effects of human activity. For 150 years, despite the massive amounts of carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning and deforestation, the oceans and forests have absorbed a significant portion of the CO2, leaving only a fraction to warm the planet. However, signs are emerging that these natural systems are reaching their limits.
- Tipping Points and Irreversible Damage: There are signs that critical ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest, once a carbon sink, have become net carbon sources. Similar vulnerabilities are seen in forests globally, alongside alarming biodiversity loss. If systems tip, they may enter a self-amplifying, destabilizing feedback loop.
- The Sixth Mass Extinction: The ongoing biodiversity crisis, with 70% of vertebrate populations lost since 1970 and massive reductions in species populations, is severely undermining the resilience of ecosystems. This loss is exacerbating the planet’s vulnerability to climate change.
- Urgent Need for Action: The speaker emphasizes that the only way forward is a combination of drastically reducing fossil fuel use and protecting nature. The solution lies in integrating biodiversity conservation and climate change efforts. Protecting at least 50% of nature is essential for maintaining the Earth’s resilience and preventing further warming.
- Planetary Boundaries Framework: Scientific evidence, such as the planetary boundaries framework, identifies key biogeophysical systems critical for maintaining Earth’s stability. Six out of the nine planetary boundaries are already outside the safe operating space, particularly biodiversity, which is at risk in terms of both genetic diversity and ecosystem function.
- Global Frameworks: Positive steps, like the Global Biodiversity Framework from the Montreal Convention, which aims to reduce biodiversity loss by 30% by 2030, are highlighted as potential paths toward sustainable human development.
The overall message is one of urgency and the need to integrate nature as a central element in mitigating climate change and ensuring the future prosperity and security of humanity.
Source: The DLD Conference, Sep 16, 2024
